The alleged China threat is driving Australian policymakers to embolden AUKUS because of China’s intransigence mindset to assuage relationships with Australia. The Chinese unilateral decision to discontinue importing some goods from Australia and stop communications with counterparts since the beginning of Covid-19 pushed the relationship between the two countries to rock bottom.

The AUKUS, a security pact among three countries – Australia, the UK and the United States, was created in September 2021 amidst the perceived China threat in the Indo-Pacific region.

Since then, the US endeavour to strengthen AUKUS has continued, which has led Australia to rescind the $ 90bn diesel-electric submarine deal with France. Instead, Australia decided to move towards acquiring nuclear-powered submarines allegedly from the United States through the AUKUS agreement.

On 29 November 2022, US Navy’s most formidable Virginia-class fast-attack submarine USS Mississippi aboard 135 crew-member, arrived at HMAS Stirling Naval Base near Rockingham after routine operations in the Indo-Pacific region.

The primary purpose of the visit is to study the joint interoperability training exercise with the Royal Australian Navy. The AUKUS team members and Australian Naval personnel had the chance to visit Australia’s future dream submarine.

Royal Australian Navy (RAN) operates six Collins-class submarines, Australian-built diesel-electric submarines, which are due to retire between 2026-2030.  But the possibility of getting Australia’s most coveted nuclear-powered submarine would take about 10 to 15 years. So, Australia desperately needs to counter the underwater threat vacuum that would be created due to the phaseout of old submarines.

As such, it is in active consideration that both the United States and Australia are looking for possibilities to operate US submarines from the Australian base on mutually agreed principles. If so, it needs to acquire the capability of interoperability between two countries so that it can be slowly and easily integrated into Royal Navy Australia.

Despite Australia’s new initiative to improve relationships with China, China updated its previous 12-point demand to 4-point demand to Australia as a precondition to normalizing the relationship.  This provocative demand puts Australia in an awkward situation, which appears intimidating for Australia to comply with.  The Chinese stubbornness subtly pushed Australia to look for more reinforced AUKUS.

On 9 December 2022, in a ‘two-plus-two’ annual meeting between Japan and Australia, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles sent a clear signal to AUKUS partners that Australia would like Japan to be included in the AUKUS pact, declaring that security ties between Tokyo and Canberra were becoming “indispensable”, according to ABC News.

Both countries are also looking for prospects to carry out more complex and sophisticated defence exercises, including potentially rotating Japanese F-35 fighter jets in Australia in the future.

The United States is already maintaining a formidable force in Darwin. Amidst the China threat, the United States is also planning to deploy its deadliest nuclear bomber, B52, and its Virginia Class submarine in suitable locations in Australia. Australia (Western Australia/Northern Territory) is becoming a strategic military hub for allied and partner countries.

It looks like the China threat is making Australia a crucial ally of the United States in fulfilling the US-led Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS).

AUKUS has become the central element of IPS, where Australia’s passionate efforts accelerate to achieve the AUKUS objectives. Moreover, the mistrust among the Quad partnership allowed the AUKUS partnership to grow to counter China’s influence in the region.  China has condemned the AUKUS, saying it would invite nuclear proliferation in the region.

When AUKUS is gaining pace in the Indo-Pacific region, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia on 8 December 2022 to improve economic ties with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, as reflected in the article written by President Xi, apparently promoting Pax Sinica. Although this visit looks like “nothing matters more than oil“, the AUKUS cannot afford to ignore oil-reach Arab countries, especially when the Russian invasion of Ukraine has created an oil crisis worldwide.

It appears that the steady but aggressive entrenching of the US-led alliance in the Indo-Pacific compelled China to make friends with like-minded countries in the Middle East to counter the United States, or it could be seen as vice-versa. China also kept pursuing to make economic and security pacts with Pacific nations. So the competition kept rising in the region, and no one knows where it ends.

However, China toned down from previous demand and invited Australia to hold the sixth Australia-China Foreign and Strategic Dialogue, on 21 December 2022, where, both foreign ministers seem to have found a suitable solution to untie the three-year impasse.

It is least expected that the improved diplomatic relation between the two countries may not diminish the China threat but Australia may have the opportunity to place the AUKUS as a fantastic R&D (research & development) platform of future technology rather than labelling the forum only to counter China’s threat.

The new initiative may reduce the gap between the two countries, but China’s malign attitude towards Australia would surely compel Australia to make some lasting decisions in the coming days that would not be in favour of China.

Although the ice is expected to melt, the growing competition would not permit AUKUS activities to wean. However, people would welcome AUKUS if it is considered a prospect to cooperate in R&D as a technological enhancement rather than drawing Australia into a US-China unjust competition.