Shocked by Israel’s Doha bombing the Gulf Cooperation Council were jolted into security rearrangements. Israel’s growing military impunity, left the Arab world vulnerable potentially with no real protection.
The Gulf Cooperation Council, realising their precarious situation, scrambled to find a backup to the US defence framework they’ve relied upon and believed in for decades. Enter the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and its Mutual Defence Pact with Saudi Arabia.
The core of this Pact stipulates that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both. Though it is said to be “purely defensive” and not directed at any specific third country or military in the region, it has profound impact on the geopolitical dynamics of West and South Asia regions and importantly the burdens placed on Pakistan.
The Question here is what impact will the Mutual Defense Pact have on Pakistan and do the people of Pakistan approve of it? To gain an understanding of what and how the Pakistani people think of this agreement, ten politically active Pakistani Australians were asked whether they supported the Pact and whom they believed stood to benefit most?
Firstly, a majority of Pakistani Australians in this sample of ten did not oppose the Pact. They believed that it would provide Pakistan with both, prestige and financial security. They saw it as being “good for Pakistan in the long run”. They did not object to it because “Saudi Arabia has consistently supported Pakistan financially and that Saudi Arabia was also the first to recognize Pakistan’s independence in 1947, showing the depth of this bond.”
One described it as a chance to “cash in” on the opportunity. Another pointedly and cynically stated that the only beneficiary in this is “the army.” While another rejected it altogether labelling it a “US- Zionist initiative…” adding “from which Pakistan will receive token aid”.
One respondent noted that “Pakistan presented this proposal last year, but MBS was hesitant. Recent Qatar attack changed everything. It proved that the US can’t be trusted. So, Saudis realized this and made this pact at the earliest.” While another maintained that it “reflected a shift in the region where reliance on U.S. security guarantees is shrinking prompting closer co-operation between trusted partners.”
As to who benefits most from this Pact, Pakistani Australians believed the Saudis were to gain most out of this agreement. The Pact, it was argued, provided a stronger deterrent posture for Saudi Arabia by formally aligning itself with a nuclear armed regional power.
Such a Pact would signal to adversaries that attacks on Saudi interests will have consequences. For Saudi Arabia, it would also mean less reliance on U.S. protection, providing Saudi Arabia with greater strategic autonomy.
As for Pakistan, they believed that the Pact presented a real risk to Islamabad. They believed that it placed greater obligations and burdens on Pakistan and on its military. Potentially embroiling Pakistan in tensions, it has no interests in while losing focus off Pakistan and the need for Pakistan security first.
They believed it presents a potential point of friction with the likes of India, Iran, Turkey, Israel, Afghanistan and other regional players. One saw it as a real ‘risk,’ to Pakistan “with the potential loss of domestic electoral support to the Sherif Government if economic expectations, arising from the deal, do not materialize or equate with Pakistan’s military commitment.”
No matter who gains out of this deal, the reality is the Mutual Defense Pact presents a real game changer, a shift in regional power dynamics but one that is fraught with danger for a nuclear-powered Pakistan.
Comments