Photo: Smoke rises during an Israeli army attack in Jenin, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, February 2, 2025.
The still ongoing Israeli military operations in Gaza, the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Lebanon represent a profound crisis in global political, security, and human rights contexts. These events underscore the limitations of the so-called “rules-based international order,” which similarly failed to prevent the genocide in Bosnia.
While the recently brokered ceasefire in Gaza offers a temporary respite from over a year of daily violence, it remains a fragile and provisional measure. Israel’s strategic objectives appear unchanged: the systematic displacement of Palestinians from their lands.
Historically, ceasefires have served as temporary interruptions rather than pathways to lasting peace, with Israel often reneging on agreements, as seen in the aftermath of Camp David, the Oslo Accords, and the 2008 Gaza ceasefire.
The current ceasefire risks a similar fate. Once the release of Israeli hostages is complete, there is a high likelihood of resumed hostilities. Past patterns suggest that provocations by Israel may elicit Palestinian responses, which are then used to justify the abandonment of agreements and further escalation of violence.
Israel has not fully achieved its stated aims of eradicating Hamas or effecting the total displacement of Palestinians from Gaza. Despite immense destruction, the people of Gaza have demonstrated resilience, and Hamas, though weakened, has retained some capacity—a testament to Palestinian steadfastness (sumud).
There is no consensus on a “day after” strategy for Gaza, which has suffered catastrophic loss. Over 200,000 Palestinians have died due to bombings, starvation, and the destruction of essential services—conditions that align with the definition of genocide in the Genocide Convention.
Survivors face dire circumstances: the obliteration of infrastructure, homes, healthcare facilities, and basic utilities has left the population in a state of extreme deprivation. Although the agreement permits increased aid deliveries, the projected 600 trucks per day fall short of pre-October 7 levels and barely address the urgent humanitarian crisis.
Furthermore, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), which plays a vital role in supporting Palestinians, faces targeted efforts by Israel and the United States to undermine its operations.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces growing domestic opposition, fuelled by his perceived failures in preventing the October 7 attacks and securing the hostages’ release. Simultaneously, Israeli society has shifted toward more extreme nationalist and religious ideologies, with increasing support for leaders and parties that advocate hardline policies against Palestinians.
Netanyahu’s political trajectory has been shaped by a commitment to a militarised Zionist vision and alliances with far-right leaders like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who have publicly opposed the ceasefire and advocated for continued conflict.
In the broader geopolitical context, US President Donald Trump appears motivated to conclude the conflict to prioritise initiatives like Israel-Saudi normalisation and containing Iran. However, Netanyahu’s manoeuvring reflects a strategy of delay, with no indication of long-term commitment to peace.
The proposed governance of Gaza under the Palestinian Authority, supported by Middle Eastern states, is fraught with challenges, given the PA’s limited credibility among Palestinians.
While the Biden and Trump administrations continue to advocate for US interests in the region, including arms sales and normalisation agreements, these efforts face growing global scrutiny.
Israel’s policies, characterised by widespread human rights abuses, have damaged its international standing and highlighted Palestinian rights on the global stage.
Any durable resolution will require not only immediate humanitarian relief but also a fundamental reckoning with the decades-long legacy of settler colonialism, apartheid, and systemic violence against Palestinians.
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