Many are in a dilemma about the future of AUKUS, an alliance initiated under the US’s Democratic Party’s leadership. With President-elect Trump poised to take control of the United States, it is anticipated that he will aim to steer AUKUS more forcefully to align with his administration’s objectives within the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS).
Trump’s approach is likely to position China as the primary competitor to the US, leveraging AUKUS as a strategic tool to counter China’s rise. The following are the most probable reasons why Trump may choose to advance AUKUS as a key instrument in this endeavour:
- NATO defense spending and Trump’s stance: During his first term, President Trump criticised NATO allies for not meeting the alliance’s defence spending target of 2% of GDP. He urged member countries to increase their defence budgets to strengthen NATO’s collective security. Trump expressed reluctance for the U.S. to bear a disproportionate share of defence costs for European allies. We can foresee a rift among the NATO leaders during Trump 2.0.
- Trump’s position on the Ukraine conflict: President Trump has advocated for a swift resolution to the Ukraine conflict, emphasising the need for peace negotiations. This stance has been met with concern among some European nations, who support Ukraine’s sovereignty and its potential NATO membership. They are wary of any peace deal that might result in Ukraine ceding territory to Russia.
- Trump’s approach to China and the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS): Trump’s administration has been assertive in countering China’s influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. It is anticipated that a second term would see a continuation or intensification of this strategy, with AUKUS serving as a pivotal alliance to address security challenges posed by China’s rise.
- AUKUS’s integration and economic implications: The AUKUS partnership has become deeply integrated into the defence and economic policies of Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Any disruption to this alliance could lead to significant financial losses and job reductions, particularly in Australia, where defence projects under AUKUS are expected to create numerous employment opportunities.
- Australia’s enhanced role in the Pacific through AUKUS: Under AUKUS, Australia is poised to take on a more prominent role in Pacific security. The alliance aims to bolster Australia’s defence capabilities, potentially positioning it as a central figure in regional security initiatives and enhancing its strategic influence in the Indo-Pacific.
AUKUS represents a trilateral defence and security partnership among Australia, the UK, and the USA, focusing on advanced technologies such as nuclear submarines, quantum computing, AI, and cyber capabilities, distinct from the NATO alliance’s broader defence framework. Australia has already embarked on joint AUKUS projects, including the development of AUKUS submarines, hypersonic missiles, and other initiatives.
Australia has increased its defence spending to 2.2% of GDP and plans to further raise its defence budget from $50 billion to $100 billion, as outlined in the “2024 National Defence Strategy.” A significant portion of this increased expenditure is expected to support AUKUS-related projects, potentially placing a financial burden on Australian taxpayers.
Australia must tread carefully. Post-COVID-19, relations between Australia and China have soured, with China’s criticism of AUKUS highlighting the growing tensions. China’s enhanced naval surveillance near Australia’s coastline and in the Pacific Islands signals its strategic shift in viewing Australia.
As Australia becomes increasingly entangled in the broader power struggle between the USA and China over Indo-Pacific dominance, it must approach its policies with caution. Striking a balance in its relationship with China while maintaining its commitments under AUKUS is essential for safeguarding its long-term national interests.
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