We are all witnessing horrors of carnage that is going on in the tiny landmass called Gaza squeezed between Egypt and Israel where 2.3 million people were living before the beginning of the butchery.

Since 2005 when Gaza became a semi-independent entity, this is the sixth time that Israel has been conducting direct military aggression into the territory.

It has led Operation Summer Rains in 2006, Operation Cast Lead in 2008-2009, Operation Pillar Defense in 2012, Operation Protective Edge in 2014, and Operation Black Belt in 2019: every time declaring the total annihilation of Hamas as the objective.

Will Israel succeed this time around?

The US administration declared unqualified support for Israel’s war strategy against the advice of prominent intellectuals.

Richard Haass, President Emeritus of the Council of Foreign Relations, has warned in a friendly advice in the Foreign Affairs that, “Hamas is as much a network, a movement, and an ideology as it is an organization. Its leadership can be killed, but the entity or something like it will survive.”

In a separate article a week after the 7 October Hamas attack, Marc Lynch has cautioned that, “An Invasion of Gaza Would Be a Disaster for Israel.” Yet the Administration does not seem to have reflected on the overall situation.

Why is this happening? Is this development unprecedented in history?

Arnold Toynbee on the possibility of the Third World War

These developments remind me of the British historian Arnold Toynbee’s prediction, who is reported to have said in 1945 that, “if a new war broke out, the Americans would be the aggressor.”[1]

Are we really moving to demonstrate that Toynbee was right? Little over two decades later he counted the United States as “one of the two malign imperialist powers in the postwar world; the other was the state of Israel.”

He justified his claim saying, “must be today the two most dangerous of the 125 sovereign states among which the land-surface of this planet is at present partitioned.”[2]

He also suggested that, “Israel’s occupation of Arab territory constituted as vicious and inhuman an act as Germany’s occupation of Czechoslovakia and Poland.”

Was Toynbee anti-Semitic? Have we even considered the question why the historian after studying twenty-one different civilizations in history developed such a negative view about Israel and the United States?

One must note that Toynbee had earlier edited the reputed Survey of International Affairs for decades.

The United States and Israel

Let us remember some events during the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948.

As soon as the State of Israel declared its independence, President Truman recognized the new state within eleven minutes of the declaration against the advice of George Marshall, the great American hero who had initiated the famous economic reconstruction program for Europe following the Second World War.

As a student of history, I must recall that Marshall was the most knowledgeable person on international affairs in the administration at the time. Marshall resigned in protest.

Have we really examined why Marshall was opposed to recognizing Israel?

The current situation also reminds me of the assassination of the Swedish diplomat and the Red Cross Chief Count Bernadotte. The newly created United Nations appointed him to negotiate peace between the Israelis and Palestinians, but the Israeli paramilitary group Lehi, also known as Stern Gang, murdered him in Jerusalem on 17 September 1948.

Bernadotte had the reputation of saving of more than 30,000 lives from Hitler’s concentration camps.

The US condemned the assassination, demanded full investigation, and bring the perpetrators to justice. However, the whole issue died down slowly and one of Bernadotte’s assassins later became Israel’s prime minister.

This seems to have encouraged Israel to mock international law and all international mediation efforts in conflicts with the Palestinians and other neighboring states since then.

This also reminds me of how the policy makers have ignored prominent academics John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt’s valuable contribution The Israel Lobby and the US Foreign Policy.

After failing to publish their initial findings in the US, they first published their article in London Review of Books. This only indicates the influence of money – the money that has corrupted our democracy.

We do not realize how much we have degenerated over the decades and now we express our horror at the murder of a six year old in the hands of an elderly man.

American politicians, the mainstream media, a powerful segment of academia – all have marginalized the faculty of critical thinking. The paradox is that modern academic disciplines claim to follow Socratic Method of inquiry but in reality, they blatantly follow Sophistic relativistic philosophy.

I became familiar with comparative civilizational studies at the University of Michigan under the guidance of Professor Stephen Tonsor, a practicing Catholic who had served at the Nixon Administration.

I could easily identify many divinely guided principles such as universal human dignity, equality and justice that he used to highlight in class discussions.

Tonsor used to highlight Toynbee’s findings about classical Greece – how aristocrats had corrupted Greece with their money and Sophistic relativity.

Following Toynbee’s lessons, Tonsor unsuccessfully tried to generate ‘the creative minority’ among conservative Republicans in his dream to save America from money politics. He clearly foresaw the corrupting influence of money in not only in politics but also in higher education.

Bankruptcy of the American political establishment

The Gaza crisis has exposed bankruptcy of the American political elite.

Secretary Blinken invoked his Jewish ancestry while declaring US’ unconditional support for Israel following Hamas’ 7 October attack. Was it a manifestation of good diplomacy?

Was he then surprised when he had to wait several hours for a simple meeting in Riyadh with the Saudi Crown Prince?

He is now facing a ‘revolt’ in the State Department.

According to reports, the director of congressional and public affairs at the State Department’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, which handles arms transfers, resigned, but he seems to have been more worried about “Some of our colleagues in the region, especially among our locally employed staff, have been directly affected by the violence, including by losing loved ones and friends.”

After retracting his claim of Hamas decapitating forty Israeli babies, President Biden has now claimed that, “American leadership is what holds the world together.”

“American alliances are what keep us, America, safe. American values are what make us a partner that other nations want to work with,” he insisted.

Is he not mocking the dreams of America’s founding fathers?

We have witnessed mockery and lies in framing the clash of civilizations thesis, in carpet-bombing Afghanistan in 2001, in justifying the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and during the two decades of occupation of Afghanistan.

President Obama in a speech addressing Israelis in 2013 to “Put yourself in Palestinian shoes.” Earlier, he also had addressed the Muslim youth generating a lot of hope with what he called “A new beginning,” but in response to Hamas’ 7 October attack, he came out condemning “brazen terrorist attacks on Israel and the slaughter of innocent civilians.”

Did he really put himself in the shoes of the people of Gaza? Did he try to find out how Gazans view Hamas? A few days later however, with the caution that, some of Israel’s action in its war against Hamas, like cutting off food and water for Gaza, could “harden Palestinian attitudes for generations.”

I doubt whether anyone in the current administration pays any attention to former presidents. We have noticed continuous deterioration of humanitarian values from President Carter to President Obama to President Biden now.

However, this is not the first time in history that we witness a decaying power is making hollow claims. Decaying powers throughout history have gone crazy in their killing spree.

How terrifying is going to be this time?

I am not a military expert and cannot even conceive such a scenario, but I am afraid, Israel does not seem to go fully for a ground invasion: Israel wants Gazans starve to death.

We are already witnessing mockery in the name of allowing some trucks of humanitarian assistance to Gaza. What will happen to more than two million Gazans when every necessary item runs out?

We have no idea what is happening to most families now, but most analysts are predicting the worse to come. If that happens, how will the rest of the world respond?

President Biden is already claiming that America is holding the world together. But holding together for what? To force Gazans to starve?

Arnold Toynbee prophesized America’s future based on his studies of major world civilizations. A culture of fear and intimidation dominates the atmosphere today. Is the Gaza crisis a symbol of civilizational predicament?

Along with the climate crisis, the current situation has become even more complex.

Are we very close to witness our civilizational collapse?

It all depends on the American people whether they would subscribe to critical thinking or act accordingly or they would like to be manipulated by money politics.

[1] Arthur Herman, The Idea of Decline in Western History. (NY: The Free Press, 1997), 285.

[2] Ibid. 286.